France election: Voter turnout high as far-right bids for power amid threat of deadlock
Voting is taking place in France’s parliamentary run-off election today amid high voter turnout and opinion polls forecasting the far-right National Rally (RN) will win the most votes but likely fall short of a majority.
Such an outcome could plunge the country into a chaotic hung parliament, severely denting the authority of President Emmanuel Macron.
Equally, if the nationalist, Eurosceptic RN did win a majority, the pro-business, pro-Europe president could find himself forced into a difficult “cohabitation”.
Voter turnout rose sharply from the last time of second-round voting in 2022. Turnout stood at 26.3 per cent by around noon, French time, up from 18.99 per cent in 2022, the interior ministry said, highlighting the population’s interest in an election that has highlighted polarised views in France.
It was the highest midday turnout level since 1981, pollster Harris Interactive and Ipsos said.
Marine Le Pen’s RN scored historic gains to win last Sunday’s first-round vote, raising the spectre of France’s first far-right government since the second World War.
But after centrist and leftist parties joined forces over the past week in a bid to forge an anti-RN barricade, Ms Le Pen’s hopes of the RN winning an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly seem less certain.
Polls suggest the RN will become the dominant legislative force but fail to reach the 289-seat majority that Ms Le Pen and her protege Jordan Bardella (28) believe would allow them to claim the prime minister’s job and drag France sharply rightward.
Mr Macron cast his ballot in the seaside resort town of La Touquet, along with his wife, Brigitte. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cast his ballot in the Paris suburb of Vanves Sunday morning.
Ms Le Pen is not voting, because her district in northern France is not holding a second round after she won the seat outright last week.
Polling stations opened at 8am French time and close at 6pm in towns and small cities and 8pm in larger cities, with initial projections expected the moment voting ends, based on partial counts from a sample of polling stations.
Much will depend on whether voters follow the calls of leading anti-RN alliances to block the far right from power, or support far-right contenders.
[ ‘If they win I will be very afraid’: Far right on verge of major breakthrough in French election ]
A long-time pariah for many due to its history of racism and anti-Semitism, the RN has increased its support on the back of voter anger at Mr Macron, straitened household budgets and immigration concerns.
“French people have a real desire for change,” Ms Le Pen told TF1 TV on Wednesday, adding that she was “very confident” of securing a parliamentary majority.
France's election: A police officer provides security outside a polling station in the Vallee du Tir district of Noumea, in the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. Photograph: DELPHINE MAYEUR/AFP via Getty Images
Even if the RN falls short, it looks set to more than double the 89 seats it won in the 2022 legislative vote, and become the dominant player in an unruly hung parliament that will make France hard to govern.
Such an outcome would risk policy paralysis until Mr Macron’s presidency ends in 2027, when Ms Le Pen is expected to launch her fourth bid for France’s top job.
Mr Macron stunned the country and angered many of his political allies and supporters when he called the snap election after a humbling by the RN in last month’s European parliamentary vote, hoping to wrong-foot his rivals in a legislative election.
Whatever the final result, his political agenda now appears dead, three years before the end of his presidency.
If the RN is deprived of a majority and declines to form a government, modern-day France would find itself in uncharted territory. Coalition building would be difficult for any of the blocs given the policy differences between them.
Mr Bardella says the RN would decline to form a government if it doesn’t win a majority, although Ms Le Pen has said it might try if it falls just short.
Mr Attal, who looks likely to lose his job as prime minister in the post-election shake-up, has dismissed suggestions Mr Macron’s centrists could seek to form a cross-party government in the event of a hung parliament. Instead, he would like moderates to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis.
An RN majority would force Mr Macron into an awkward “cohabitation” with Bardella as prime minister, with thorny constitutional tussles and questions on the international stage about who really speaks for France. – Reuters
