Cloud on the horizon as politicians take summer break
It’s the last week of the current Dáil term, with the long hot summer stretching out in front of the current crop of parliamentarians. Except it’s not hot, the forecast is for teeming rain much of the day, and the cloud on the horizon is a likely autumn general election to keep everyone on their toes, with the small matter of the Government’s last budget in between. Thank god for those rainy day funds, right?
Today’s main business will be the lunchtime publication of the summer Economic Statement, which sets the broad parameters for the budget. The three Coalition leaders met late into the evening on Monday with the finance ministers Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe to thrash out the final agreement. Details of what it will contain are thin on the ground - but it looks like a tax package north of €1.1 billion, for starters. We hear the top brass were at it so late that Taoiseach Simon Harris had to cancel a jaunt to the US Ambassador’s 4th July party in the Phoenix Park.
It says something about the rapid personnel changes in the coalition that at last night’s meeting, new finance minister Jack Chambers (appointed 13 days ago) was not even the person in the room most recently in a new job (Roderic O’Gorman, elected Green Party earlier that morning). All this change will take time to gel; what we don’t know is what the outworkings of these changes will be in the final months before an election.
Chambers has stuck to the script since his elevation, urging caution and prudence, seeking to temper expectations - in fact, one Fianna Fáil minister went so far as to argue privately yesterday that in the face of budgetary kite flying, fiscal restraint should become part of the Fianna Fáil brand (“part of our selling point is fiscal prudence,” this minister said). Whether that survives contact with the backbenchers is another matter.
Here’s what we can glean about the SES, and what else is going to cabinet today:
Some in Fianna Fáil believe Fine Gael are already planning to pin any dashed budget promises on Chambers - particularly if no lower VAT rate for the hospitality sector is signed off. The jockeying for political position over the coming months will be something to behold.
Where O’Gorman fits into all this is another known unknown: there will be no ministerial overhaul, and as Pat Leahy writes today, O’Gorman is the continuity candidate from Eamon Ryan.
However, continuity is unlikely to cut it if the Green Party is to convince voters beyond its base that it deserves their votes. The Dublin West TD indicated yesterday that he wanted to show people how Green policies could help and support people in their daily lives - but which policies, at what cost, and how forceful will he have to be to ensure they are branded as Green?
Best reads
Keir Starmer was in Belfast yesterday and as our Northern editor Freya McClements writes, it was all smiles and a clear change of tone.
The dust continues to settle on those extraordinary French elections. Read Jack Power’s two analysis pieces on what comes next here and here.
Brexit was notable by its relative absence from the UK general election campaign, but Fintan O’Toole says Keir Starmer needs to put caution aside and start tackling the elephant in the room.
In The Debate, Minister of State Neale Richmond sets out his party’s stall on inheritance tax. (What is it about Fine Gael ministers of state and pre-budget op-eds?) Barra Roantree responds.
Playbook
The cabinet meeting kicks things off at 9am, with the Summer Economic Statement expected to follow in the early afternoon, around lunchtime.
The Dáil sits from 2pm with leaders’ questions before Taoiseach’s Questoins at 3pm and the second stage of legislation on student accommodation leases taking up government time in the afternoon. Sinn Féin has a private members motion on an inquiry into the death of Shane O’Farrell, killed in a hit and run in Monaghan ten years ago. In the evening, Paschal Donohoe takes oral questions fresh from the launch of the Summer Economic Statement, before topical issues shortly before 11pm.
The full schedule is here.
Commencement matters in the Seanad are from 1pm followed by the order of business. The report and final stages of Defence (Amendment) Bill are at 3.15pm followed by the Social Welfare miscellaneous bill’s committee and remaining stages at 5.15pm. The full schedule can be found here:
The full schedule is here.
The Seanad Public Consultation Committee is hearing from experts on the future of local democracy at 9am, while the environment committee is hearing from unions on the circular economy and the waste sector at 11am. The education committee is holding a session on the future of AI in education at the same time, while the highlight of the afternoon and evening meetings is an engagement on decriminilaisation at the joint committee on drugs use.
The full schedule is here.
The pre-budget submissions are gathering pace, with the Saint Vincent de Paul launching theirs at 10am in Buswell’s. Meanwhile, SIPTU community sector members will be protesting outside Leinster House in the early afternoon. Ethical Farming Ireland will have a protest outside the Department of Agriculture at midday, as will My Lovely Horse Rescue.
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