Trickle of Fine Gael departures risks turning into a flood as election moves closer
The Dáil paused momentarily on Tuesday to mark the announcement by two of the founders of the Social Democrats, Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy, that they would not seek re-election. “Two mighty and formidable women in leadership,” Mary Lou McDonald called them. Simon Harris agreed. “Very formidable politicians.”
“Trailblazers in Irish politics,” said Holly Cairns. The Ceann Comhairle also chipped in: “A truly reformative influence on politics in this country”. The Dáil smiled and nodded its assent, and then moved on. As politics always does.
Expect more such announcements in the coming weeks and months as an election shimmers into view. Each retirement will present potential replacements with the opportunity to launch a national political career but they also present party chiefs with the headache of finding the right replacement who can hold the seat.
Departures are unwelcome for the parties because of the great advantage that comes with being the sitting TD. There is voluminous research by political scientists which bears out what TDs and party headquarters have observed over generations about the value of incumbency.
One study summarised: “Evidence from democracies all over the world demonstrates that candidates who have held office in the previous legislative cycle perform significantly better in the next election(s) compared to candidates who did not hold office.”
Another – specifically Irish – study found that “incumbency causes an 18 percentage point increase in the probability that a candidate is successful in a subsequent election”. 18 points! Them are some hard numbers that the pointy-headed intellectuals have got right there.
Michael Gallagher of Trinity College Dublin, writing in the 2016 edition of the indispensable How Ireland Voted series, noted the electoral hierarchy: “Cabinet ministers do best, non-ministerial incumbent TDs less well, senators and county councillors less well still, and those without any elective status worst of all.”
Inherited political wisdom, as well as anecdotal evidence from working politicians, confirms it. “I don’t have to work as hard as I used to. They know me now,” confided one TD this week.
And so the task facing the Social Democrats to replace its founders is not an easy one. Mind you, as one Fianna Fáiler said waspishly this week, “I could think of a few of our lads I wouldn’t mind seeing announce their retirements.” Change happens all the time, and Irish elections are increasingly volatile. But lots of voters like to stick with the devil they know.
[ Exodus of incumbents damages Fine Gael morale ]
Nowhere is the incumbency advantage – or rather the disadvantage of not being an incumbent – more of a challenge now than in Fine Gael.
Eleven TDs – John Paul Phelan, Michael Creed, Charlie Flanagan, Brendan Griffin, Joe McHugh, Fergus O’Dowd, David Stanton, Richard Bruton, Paul Kehoe, Ciarán Cannon and Josepha Madigan – have all announced that they will not stand at the next election. That’s a serious exodus. But it’s not all – the party is bracing itself for more departures in the coming weeks.
Few expect that former taoiseach Leo Varadkar or former tánaiste Simon Coveney will stand again, having stepped down from ministerial office in recent months. Both have said they will consider their future over the summer.
In addition, it is widely expected that Clare TD Joe Carey, who has been absent from the Oireachtas on long-term sick leave, will not run again.
There are also doubts about the future of veteran TDs Michael Ring and Bernard Durkan. Durkan (79) has said it is his intention to run again, while Ring has said that he has not yet decided. The Meath West TD Damien English, about whose intentions there has been some speculation, did not respond to queries this week.
If all the above stand down at the next election, it would bring to 17 the number of Fine Gael TDs not standing – that’s more than half its existing Dáil strength. It’s hard to think of a parallel without recalling the huge number of retirements of Fianna Fáil TDs before the 2011 election in the wake of the financial collapse and the bailout. Those were obviously huge factors then. The party lost 50 seats.
[ Early general election speculation takes off after Minister announces October 1st budget date ]
That won’t happen to Fine Gael, of course. The party is looking forward to the election with a confidence that would have been unimaginable a few months ago and now displays a sense of political momentum – another reason for an autumn general election. But the departure of so many experienced TDs and proven vote-getters leaves the party playing defensively in a lot of constituencies, seeking to hold the seat rather than to gain.
Party headquarters ordered this week that all selection conventions must take place by September 22nd. Despite the success of “celebrity” (we use the term advisedly) candidates in the European elections, nearly all new candidates will come from the ranks of recently elected councillors. That will be true for the other parties, too. All are poring over the local results to see the men and women mostly likely to win or hold Dáil seats.
A steady rate of retirements is a good thing – parties need to renew themselves. What our parties and our political system as a whole – including the voters who actually elect the TDs – need to be better at is promoting not just the vote-getters but also those with expertise, with ideas, with a desire to actually do things at Leinster House rather than just get there and stay there.
For them, and for everyone else involved, it will be a summer of intensive political activity. The Dáil rises next Thursday. But for all those except the grateful departing, the summer’s work is just beginning.
