DUP suffers ‘bigger than seismic’ defeat with Ian Paisley losing seat held by family for more than 50 years
As Thursday night edged into Friday morning, the surprises kept coming.
Seats which were expected to be held – Lagan Valley, North Down – were lost. Seats where the margin was thought to be tight – South Antrim – were captured by a landslide. And seats which nobody had imagined would be in doubt – North Antrim – were suddenly in play.
Rumour swirled around the count centres; just after 4.30am, the news began seeping through. Jim Allister, the leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), had taken North Antrim by around 400 votes.
As the time approached 6am, Allister told the BBC a recount was taking place in North Antrim; as pundits and politicians awaited the result, there was no doubt as to its significance.
[ How did Northern Ireland vote? A full breakdown of how each constituency voted in the UK election ]
“Whatever bigger than seismic is,” presenter Mark Carruthers said on the BBC’s election results programme.
The safest DUP seat in Northern Ireland was in the balance – a seat which, in 2019, was taken by Ian Paisley with a majority of 12,721 votes. It was Allister’s - by 450 votes.
The unthinkable had happened. The seat that had been held by a Paisley - Ian or his father, Ian senior - for more than 50 years, had fallen.
Ian Paisley snr was first elected for North Antrim in 1970, with his son holding the seat until this eleciton. Photograph: Pacemaker
Going into this election, the breakdown in the North’s 18 constituencies was eight DUP, seven Sinn Féin, two SDLP and one Alliance.
By Friday morning the scores on the doors were seven Sinn Féin, five DUP, two SDLP, one Alliance, one Ulster Unionist, one TUV and one independent unionist.
The story of the election was the splintering of the unionist vote at the expense of the DUP, which had a terrible night.
The chink of light was the retention of Belfast east – widely tipped as the battle of the election – by the party leader Gavin Robinson, but it lost Lagan Valley – the seat formerly held by Jeffrey Donaldson and contested this time by Jonathan Buckley – and South Antrim, contested by veteran Paul Girvan.
Even in seats which it held – Sammy Wilson’s East Antrim – it did so by only around 1,300 votes, down from a majority of nearly 7,000.
Much to be discussed in the coming days and weeks, as Robinson alluded to in his acceptance speech. It was, he said, a lesson in what happened when the unionist vote was split; it will remain to be seen what the consequences of this are for unionism, not least given the presence on the green benches of Westminster of the new MP for North Antrim, Mr Allister.
A great day for the TUV; it was also a great day for the UUP, which got back on the scoreboard with its victory in South Antrim.
Sinn Féin had a good day – it held its seven seats and despite a narrative early in the count that it would lose Fermanagh South Tyrone to the UUP candidate, it ultimately took it by more than 4,000 votes – tantamount to a landslide in this perennial marginal where its majority last time was a mere 57.
[ NI election: Sinn Féin now biggest party in Westminster, Stormont and council after DUP losses ]
It also took Sinn Féin to the “hat trick”, as Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, has put it; for the first time in the history of Northern Ireland, a nationalist party is now the largest at all three levels of government in the North – Assembly, council and now Westminster.
Job done, as far as Sinn Féin is concerned; it will do much to rejuvenate the party after a bruising in the elections south of the Border in recent weeks.
Job done too for the SDLP, which held both its seats, albeit with a much-reduced majority for party leader Colum Eastwood in Foyle.
But for Alliance it was a mixed bag – it took Lagan Valley but lost North Down – and the party will be disappointed that the Alliance surge - the story of previous elections - has been, if not halted, then certainly slowed.
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